Market volatility indicator still points to $135K Bitcoin within 100 days — Analyst

Bitcoin’s price remains robustly above $100,000, fueled by a “risk-on” market sentiment. This positive shift follows a significant drop in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) to 20, its 30-year average, down from a peak of 60 earlier in 2025. This decline is attributed to a US-China trade deal reached on May 12th, which included a 90-day tariff pause and substantial tariff reductions from both nations. This agreement has encouraged investors to embrace higher-risk assets, boosting Bitcoin and equities alike.

Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson supports this analysis, stating that the VIX drop signifies a “risk-on” environment for the foreseeable future. Further bolstering this bullish sentiment is the April 2025 US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate, which fell to 2.3% year-over-year—its lowest point since February 2021. This figure, lower than anticipated, suggests easing inflationary pressures and potentially increases the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025, provided other economic indicators remain consistent.

The confluence of factors—reduced volatility, cooling inflation, and a trade war truce—creates a favorable environment for Bitcoin. Peterson previously predicted a potential BTC price of $135,000 within 100 days, based on his model’s correlation between low VIX levels and increased investor confidence in riskier assets like Bitcoin. His model boasts a 95% accuracy rate in this prediction.

Sentiment surrounding Bitcoin has dramatically improved. The Bitcoin Bull Score Index has surged from 20 to 80, a level historically linked to substantial price increases. This surge, driven by spot demand exceeding supply, mirrors patterns observed after the April 2024 halving, suggesting further price gains are possible. While the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is rising (currently at 53.3%), it remains below the “overloaded” zone above 80%, leaving room for further growth. Analysts foresee a potential market upswing, aiming for a successful retest and surpassing Bitcoin’s all-time high near $110,000. However, it’s crucial to remember that all investment decisions involve risk, and thorough research is essential before investing.