Is XRP price going to crash again?

XRP’s price action presents a mixed outlook. A falling wedge breakout retest suggests potential for a rally towards $3.60 if the upper trendline holds as support. However, a breakdown below $1.11 could trigger a bearish inverse cup-and-handle pattern, potentially causing a sharp drop to $0.50.

Currently, XRP is trading at $2.42, a 50%+ rebound in five weeks but still 30% below its January 2025 peak. This raises concerns about a potential bull trap. The falling wedge pattern, if validated, indicates a strong likelihood of price increases, with the target of $3.60 calculated by adding the wedge’s maximum height to the breakout point. Failure to hold above the upper trendline, however, would invalidate the bullish setup and risk declines toward $1.75.

Conversely, the formation of an inverse cup-and-handle pattern over the past five months introduces a bearish possibility. A break below the $1.11 neckline would confirm this pattern, projecting a significant drop to $0.50 – an almost 80% decline. Low volume during the “handle” phase and a neutral RSI near 50 further support this bearish scenario.

Adding to the uncertainty, XRP whales are currently underwater, holding XRP at an average cost above the current market price. Historically, this hasn’t been bullish, often preceding a broader pullback. While a short-term rise toward the whale realized price of $2.58 is possible, a more pessimistic outlook suggests a drop to $0.67, aligning with the realized price of smaller holders. An aggregated realized price suggests a target around $1.04. Sustained rallies above $2.58, however, would indicate strong bullish conviction, potentially fueled by the launch of US spot XRP ETFs. The situation remains volatile, highlighting the need for careful consideration and further research before making any investment decisions.