Is the XRP price rally over for now?

XRP’s price action presents a mixed outlook, with short-term bearish signals countered by long-term bullish potential. Technically, XRP has formed a double top near $2.65 and broken down from a rising wedge pattern, both suggesting a potential price drop. The double top, confirmed by a break below the neckline around $2.47, points to a downside target near $2.30. The rising wedge breakdown, confirmed by a fall below the lower trendline, indicates a further 20% decline to approximately $1.94. This aligns with the liquidation of leveraged long positions around $2.00–$2.04, potentially exacerbating selling pressure.

On-chain analysis adds to the short-term bearish sentiment. XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has entered the Belief-Denial zone, historically preceding significant corrections. This suggests traders remain bullish despite weakening momentum, a pattern observed before previous price crashes.

However, a longer-term perspective reveals potential for significant upside. A breakout from a multi-month falling wedge pattern could propel XRP 45% higher to $3.69 by June. Furthermore, longer-term projections based on symmetrical triangles and Fibonacci extensions suggest targets of $5.24 and even $17. The persistence of bullish signals on long-term charts indicates the rally may not be over despite short-term risks.

The confluence of these short-term bearish and long-term bullish indicators creates uncertainty. The $1.94 level represents a key support area, a break below which could trigger further declines. Conversely, a successful defense of this level, followed by a break above $2.65, could invalidate the bearish patterns and reignite the upward momentum. Traders should carefully weigh these conflicting signals before making investment decisions. This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice.