BTC bulls get 'biggest signal' — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) surged to multi-month highs, exceeding $105,000 on Bitstamp, fueled by bullish signals and a key MACD indicator cross mirroring October 2024’s pattern. However, the weekly close fell short of expectations, leaving price discovery uncertain. Market volatility is heightened by upcoming US CPI and PPI data releases, and more significantly, by the implications of a potential US-China trade deal. Trader observations highlight “aware price action” preceding significant announcements, suggesting potential insider trading influencing market moves. Further volatility is anticipated.

Despite reaching three-and-a-half-month highs, Bitcoin failed to decisively break key support, closing the week around $104,100. Analysts suggest watching for bullish divergence patterns to confirm future trends. While price targets previously reached $150,000, the current situation presents a trading range recently reclaimed.

The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, with the upcoming CPI and PPI data adding to the volatility. The US-China trade deal’s ambiguity contributes to market uncertainty, as evidenced by modest market gains despite potentially bullish news. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, maintaining interest rates, further dampens bullish sentiment. Rate cut probabilities remain low for June, with only around 50% odds for July.

Analysis reveals that over 98% of Bitcoin’s supply is currently in profit, a rare occurrence. This “smart distribution” scenario raises concerns about long-term holders potentially reducing exposure at current levels, while new entrants might perceive it as a signal to invest, potentially creating a sentiment mismatch. Despite the high price, mainstream retail interest in Bitcoin remains subdued, as indicated by low Google search volumes and a relatively low “greed” level on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, suggesting potential for sustained growth.