Published: Jan 13, 2023, 6:43pm
2022 has been very rough for all the cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin. Infact, the largest cryptocurrency of the world, Bitcoin has lost nearly 65% of its market value in the entire year of 2022. Crypto enthusiasts were caught off guard by a series of unfortunate events such as the Terra Luna crash, fall out of the largest crypto exchange FTX, and the looming macroeconomic conditions.
But there are several questions which are hovering on everyone’s mind: what will happen next? Will Bitcoin ever rise again? Or, will it crash just like in 2022?
Here’s a detailed read which will help you to find out all the possibilities for Bitcoin prices in 2023.
(The Bullish View)
Presently, Bitcoin is comfortably trading above the levels of $18,500, with a positive change in its price since last November. At the time of writing, the daily trading volume of Bitcoin stands over $30 billion. Experts believe that once Bitcoin crosses the crucial level of $19,500, then it might aim to move upward towards the resistance level of $20,000, opening the doors for more gains.
It is to be noted that the Bitcoin price showed positive signals once it crossed crucial levels of $16,800. The price again picked up pace and continued showing bullish signals until now. Let’s have a look that what picture does technical indicators are depicting as of now:
(Data sourced from CoinMarketCap.com)
One of the reasons why experts are bullish on Bitcoin is that, next year, 2024, is a year for Bitcoin’s halving event. The Bitcoin halving event happens every four years in which Bitcoin rewards to its miners are cut in half, (miner’s payout will be reduced to 3.125 BTC). This event is generally viewed as positive for Bitcoin’s price, as halving helps in contracting supply. Historically, halving has been seen as a very good sign for bringing momentum in Bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin Halving History
So, if we closely observe the data, past Bitcoin halving events have been able to establish long-term bullish drivers for Bitcoin’s price. The Bitcoin halving event directly relates to its deflationary tendency and squeezes its supply, which helps the BTC price to rise further. As Bitcoin, being a decentralized cryptocurrency, cannot be printed by governments or any central banks, and thus the total supply of Bitcoin is limited.
The other reason for Bitcoin to rally in 2023 is the U.S. Fed’s interest rate negotiations, which might help Bitcoin to maintain its rising trajectory and outperform as compared to other asset classes.
Moreover, large investors which are known as “Bitcoin Whales”, have started accumulating BTC once again. According to data from on-chain aggregator Santiment, the large Bitcoin whales are holding between 1,000-10,000 BTC in their wallets, indicating that investors have been filling up their wallets with a lot of BTC, which might show the recovery sign in the price of Bitcoin.
(The Bearish View)
There are another set of investors, corporates and large institutions who hold an opposite view (bearish) on Bitcoin and firmly believe that Bitcoin might fall in the near future. They considered this rally as a major “bull trap” rather than a “bull run”. Veteran global investor, Mark Mobius, the billionaire founder of Mobius Capital Partners, already predicted a huge fall in 2022 and said that Bitcoin could even fall till the $10,000 range.
Similarly, the same is predicted by another maverick investor, Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, a global investment manager, sees Bitcoin to drop to $12,000 levels, citing higher energy prices.
Moreover, global bank Standard Chartered’s prediction on Bitcoin is super surprising. They predicted that Bitcoin could fall to $5,000 levels in 2023.
Experts believe that the rising interest rates and tighter monetary policy will not allow Bitcoin to rebound sharply in the near future. As in this kind of uncertain market, investors will not prefer to invest or buy risky assets such as Bitcoin. And, those who have been holding BTC, might sell their positions, creating undue pressure on the markets again.
With such varied predictions on Bitcoin, what should be the approach of Indian crypto investors? With such uncertainty around, maybe it is the best time to observe the Bitcoin moves carefully rather than taking any action which might lead to severe losses. Even the Indian crypto industry experts believe that it is a wait-and-watch mode for crypto investors and any further action must be taken very carefully.
Dileep Seinberg, the founder and CEO of MuffinPay, believes, “Bitcoin’s price action movement depends upon macroeconomic factors including inflationary concerns and rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the other central banks. Other than this, receding fears of economic slowdown or recession may also impact the Bitcoin prices.”
He strongly feels that Indian investors should stay cautious about investing in Bitcoin in 2023, as this year is likely to remain a mixed bag and crypto investors should not go all guns blazing.
Punit Agarwal, founder of KoinX, suspects inflation and recession to be the main themes that crypto investors should look out for, even in 2023. Agarwal, stated, “Indian investors should have a long-term perspective when investing in crypto assets, including Bitcoin.”
He believes that investors should instead opt for regular Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) in Bitcoin to yield long-term gains.
On the contrary, certain market experts have full faith in Bitcoin and expect it to rise again. Raj Karkara, chief operating officer of ZebPay, seems quite bullish on Bitcoin. He said “the fundamentals of Bitcoin remain rock solid irrespective of the market conditions.” He further gave an example of one of the researches of market intelligence firm Glassnodes that stated close to 60% of circulating Bitcoin has not yet moved in 2022, and long-term investors are still bullish on Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin can rise again in 2023 provided there are no macroeconomic headwinds.” says Karkara. He also feels that crypto traders and investors should research extensively on the fundamentals and technicalities of an asset before taking a buy or sell decision. Also, using a systematic investment plan (SIP) approach in Bitcoin can help investors hedge against market volatility.
There are several views and predictions on Bitcoin, some are bullish and some are bearish. Only time will tell where Bitcoin will head next. Bitcoin, which is known for its resilient nature, carries a huge capacity for comebacks. For the past decade, several veteran experts have predicted that the Bitcoin bubble will burst soon. However, the poster boy of cryptocurrency is still favored by many and has also helped investors make substantial fortunes over time.
Rashi Maheshwari is a Deputy Editor for Forbes Advisor India. She has more than a decade of experience working in news, public relations and communications. In the past, she has worked with CNBC Awaaz, CryptoWire, among others and has covered beats including insurance, personal investments and cryptocurrency. She is a travel enthusiast and would like to visit every country and try as many different culinary specialities as possible.
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