Bitcoin researcher Sminston With predicts a significant price surge for Bitcoin (BTC), estimating a potential 100% to 200% increase, leading to a cycle peak between $220,000 and $330,000. This prediction is based on a power law model (R²=0.96) applied to a 365-day simple moving average (SMA) of Bitcoin’s price. The model suggests Bitcoin’s price follows a predictable pattern, deviating from typical exponential growth models used for stocks. Historically, Bitcoin’s 365-day SMA has peaked 2 to 3 times above the power law trendline during bullish phases.
With’s analysis challenges the notion that Bitcoin’s price volatility is diminishing. His charts show consistent cyclical volatility without exponential decay in sustained peaks, suggesting significant price swings may continue. This contrasts with the belief that Bitcoin’s price cycles are becoming less extreme. Notably, With accurately predicted Bitcoin reaching a six-figure price by January 2025. However, he cautions that his study is based on only four market cycles and should be viewed with skepticism.
Adding to the complexity, Glassnode data reveals that long-term holders (LTHs) have moved over $4 billion in BTC, the largest volume since February 2025. This significant movement, primarily from the 3-to-5-year cohort, often precedes price peaks and suggests profit-taking. The current struggle to maintain a price above $110,000 adds weight to this concern. While exchange reserves are currently declining, a sharp price movement could occur if this trend reverses.
Technically, Bitcoin has shown higher highs and lows since bottoming at $74,500, consistently forming sideways ranges before breakouts. The current correction aligns with this pattern, but a deeper correction is possible. Anonymous crypto trader TXMC highlights that Bitcoin is nearing the end of a historically long green weekly streak (seven to eight consecutive weeks), a pattern often followed by a pullback or consolidation. This confluence of factors suggests potential volatility in the near future. It’s crucial to remember that all investment decisions involve risk, and thorough research is essential.
