Bitcoin’s ‘aggressive leg higher’ in Q3 still up in the air: Analyst

Bitcoin’s recent surge to an all-time high of $111,970 has injected optimism into the crypto market, but analysts remain cautious about its sustainability through the third quarter of 2025. Bitfinex analysts, in a May 28 note, suggest the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether this represents a temporary peak or the start of a more significant price increase.

While a continued price rise would be positive, Bitfinex emphasizes that consolidation or a mild retracement wouldn’t necessarily negate the upward trend. Such periods are considered healthy and could provide a more stable base for future growth. Bitcoin’s historical behavior supports this; after reaching $73,679 in March 2024, it consolidated within a $20,000 range until November of that year.

Historically, Q3 has been Bitcoin’s weakest-performing quarter since 2013, averaging a mere 6.03% return over the past eleven years (CoinGlass data). This contrasts with Q2’s average return of 27.25% and Q4’s status as the best-performing quarter.

Currently, Bitcoin is in a short-term range-bound phase, with significant short-term holder selling (those holding for under 155 days). Over $11.4 billion in profits were realized by these holders in the past month, creating a near-term supply overhang. However, Bitbo data indicates a realized price of $95,781, compared to a trading price of $108,929 at the time of writing, representing a 13.72% average profit for short-term holders. This suggests underlying structural demand.

Positive indicators include strong ETF bid strength, low volatility, and a positive spot premium, all suggesting a maturing market primed for further growth once macroeconomic uncertainty clears. The trading week ending May 23 saw approximately $2.75 billion flow into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

The Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision on June 18 will be closely watched for its impact on the macro environment. The Fed maintained rates at 4.25% to 4.50% in May. The recent Bitcoin highs fulfill predictions made earlier in the year by several crypto experts, including Cory Klippsten and Jamie Coutts.