XRP price top is in? Network metrics put 385% rally at risk

XRP’s recent price surge, exceeding 385% since late 2024, is raising concerns among analysts. On-chain data suggests this rally might have attracted buyers at vulnerable levels, mirroring patterns observed before previous market peaks. Glassnode data reveals that over 70% of XRP’s realized market capitalization—the value based on each token’s last transaction price—accumulated between late 2024 and early 2025. This concentration of realized cap within a short timeframe, particularly among newer, shorter-term holders, is a historically fragile market structure. These newer investors tend to be more sensitive to price fluctuations, often triggering sharp sell-offs during corrections.

This pattern is strikingly similar to those observed before XRP’s significant drawdowns in late 2017 (95% decline) and 2021 (nearly 80% decline). In both instances, a surge in realized cap by short-term holders preceded substantial price drops. The current situation raises concerns that XRP may have already formed a local top in January 2025.

Further fueling these concerns is the significant drop in XRP’s network activity. The number of active addresses, a key indicator of transactional demand, has plummeted over 90% since March 2025, returning to pre-breakout levels. This divergence between rising prices and declining on-chain activity mirrors patterns seen near previous market tops. While not a guaranteed indicator, the reduced active addresses suggest a decrease in actual XRP usage, with more holders simply holding rather than transacting.

Technical analysis adds to the bearish outlook. XRP’s weekly chart displays a falling wedge pattern, a bearish indicator often preceding price declines. The cryptocurrency appears to be entering a short-term correction, failing to break above the wedge’s upper trendline. A continued pullback could push XRP toward the wedge’s lower trendline, aligning with the 50-week exponential moving average near $1.76—a potential 25% drop from current levels. This confluence of on-chain and technical indicators suggests a potential correction for XRP in the coming months. Remember, all investment decisions involve risk, and thorough research is crucial.