Will Bitcoin bulls secure $110K before BTC’s $13.8B options expiry?

Bitcoin bulls are targeting a price above $110,000 by May 30th, aiming to capitalize on a significant imbalance in options market positions. With a total options expiry of $13.8 billion, the largest of 2025, this presents a crucial opportunity. The current market landscape strongly favors bulls.

The open interest in put (sell) options stands at $6.5 billion, but a significant portion (95%) of these positions are priced below $109,000. This means that if Bitcoin maintains its current price, only a small fraction ($350 million) of these put options will be relevant at expiry. In contrast, call (buy) options with strike prices up to $109,000 have a total open interest of $3.8 billion. While this imbalance appears bullish, it’s important to note that not all call option holders are necessarily betting on a price increase; some may use them for hedging purposes.

Recent trading activity on Deribit highlights common strategies employed, such as short calls (providing fixed-income returns if the price stays above a certain threshold) and bull call spreads (hedging against downside risk). The recent surge in Bitcoin’s price (25% in 30 days) caught bears off guard, further strengthening the bullish sentiment.

Robust demand above $105,000 is evidenced by net inflows of $1.9 billion into US spot Bitcoin ETFs between May 20th and 22nd. This influx of capital reduces the likelihood of a significant price decline. Should Bitcoin hold near the $109,000 mark, most bullish strategies are likely to yield positive results at expiry. However, bears might attempt to manipulate Bitcoin futures markets (currently with $79 billion open interest) to mitigate their losses. This could backfire if the price surpasses $110,000, forcing them to close their short positions.

Four potential scenarios illustrate the profit implications of the options expiry, based on price ranges and open interest imbalances (though not accounting for complex strategies): $102,000-$105,000 favors calls by $1.85 billion; $105,000-$107,000 favors calls by $2.65 billion; $107,000-$110,000 favors calls by $3.35 billion; and $110,000-$114,000 favors calls by a substantial $4.7 billion. The ongoing tariff war remains a key factor influencing market momentum. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.