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Bitcoin’s price, currently retracing, shows strong indicators suggesting a potential surge towards $140,000. Several key factors contribute to this bullish outlook.
Firstly, significant inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled $2.9 billion in just two weeks, mirroring previous rallies that preceded substantial price increases. This mirrors past trends; $8.5 billion in net inflows were seen between February and March 2024, and $5.7 billion between November and December 2024, coinciding with Bitcoin’s 60% rally. Continued ETF inflows strongly suggest a resumption of the upward trend.
Secondly, the declining CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) to 18 indicates a “risk-on” environment, favorable for Bitcoin. Analyst Timothy Peterson’s model, boasting 95% accuracy, predicts a $135,000 target within 100 days if the low VIX persists.
Thirdly, whale accumulation continues. The Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) at 1 signifies intense accumulation by large investors, mirroring a pattern preceding Bitcoin’s rise from $67,000 to $108,000 in October 2024. Data shows addresses holding 10 to 10,000 BTC accumulated 83,105 more BTC in the past 30 days.
Fourthly, declining exchange balances, reaching a six-year low of 2.44 million BTC, indicate investors are moving Bitcoin to self-custody wallets, suggesting a belief in future price appreciation. Over 110,000 BTC have left exchanges in the last 30 days.
Finally, increasing network activity, as measured by the rising transaction volume Z-score nearing 1, historically correlates with Bitcoin price rallies. This metric, approaching 1, signals potential price acceleration.
Technically, Bitcoin’s price has formed a rounded bottom pattern, with a breakout above $106,660 potentially leading to a $140,000 target. The RSI at 70 and a bullish cross from moving averages further support the upside potential. A previous bull flag breakout projected a rally to $150,000. While these indicators are positive, remember that all investment decisions involve risk. Conduct thorough research before investing.
