Bitcoin price is shockingly close to its former 2017 peak, causing widespread panic, fear, and despair across the crypto market. But could the violent move down be a text book zig-zag correction? And if so, what does this mean for the crypto market next?
Despite the narrative from 2020 forward that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies had matured has an asset class, the recent collapse reminded the world that digital assets remain speculative. Speculative assets are driven by pure emotion, since there aren’t ideal ways to fundamentally price Bitcoin yet. Most on-chain signals remained bullish despite a more than 70% fall from the peak set in November of last year, for example.
Price action might better be predicted based on Elliott Wave Theory, first discovered in the 1930s by Ralph Nelson Elliott. According to Wikipedia, “Elliott Wave Principle posits that collective trader psychology, a form of crowd psychology, moves between optimism and pessimism in repeating sequences of intensity and duration. These mood swings create patterns in the price movements of markets at every degree of trend or time scale.”
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More simply put, bull and bear phases alternate in a predictable manner through what Elliott referred to as “waves.” The theory outlines that markets move up between a motive phase and corrective phase. Motive waves are primary cycles consisting of 5 total sub-waves. Waves 1, 3, and 5 are impulse waves in the primary market trend direction, while waves 2 and 4 are corrective phases. When wave 5 completes, the motive wave (a bull market cycle) moves into a corrective wave (and bear market).
Motive waves can come in varying shapes, and corrections can be downright confusing. However, the latest correction in Bitcoin could be a textbook zig-zag correction, according to how the pattern unfolded from a sentiment standpoint.
The zig-zag pattern is a 3-wave corrective structure labeled as ABC and subdivides into a 535 pattern. The first move down, labeled A, is a 5-wave impulse move based on raw emotions. Wave B is characterized as moving up in this case, sucking in new bullish positions that are ultimately taken out in the C-wave move down. C-waves of a zig-zag are also impulse moves driven by panic and fear.
When they complete, the market can move up again. It is difficult to imagine at this point in the pattern that a reversal is possible given the extreme switch in investor sentiment, but that’s often when recoveries emerge from disbelief.
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Since Elliott Wave Theory focuses on patterns of investor sentiment switching back and forth from bear to bull and vice-versa, the patterns can be used to profit but are typically only identifiable once completed and long in hindsight. Is the recent downward spiral nothing more than a downward zig-zag pattern that might have just come to completion?
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I’m Tony Spilotro. Behind the pseudonym, I’m a global remote work leader with a decade of award-winning content experience and excellence. Here, I explore my newfound passions pertaining to privacy, finance, economics, politics, cryptography, property rights, and other libertarian-esque views. I am a Bitcoin evangelist, maximalist, and educator whenever I can be, helping to spread its message of freedom from government control, monetary policy mismanagement, and passing the buck – literally – to future generations. My journey from a curious retail crypto investor to a serious Bitcoin advocate, trader, and technical analyst is an unusual one, but life-changing nonetheless and has become less about money and more about a long-overdue revolution. While a firm believer in the laws governing math and science, I am profoundly fascinated by the impact of astrology and astronomy including moon and solar cycles and planetary alignment and their ability to influence and potentially predict markets. It hasn’t yet clicked for me as to how to put anything to use, but I consider it my current rabbit hole I can’t yet dig out of. My perspective of growing up alongside the internet, the dot com era, the Great Recession, and roots in video games collecting coins and rare items caused Bitcoin to immediately make sense to me. Through all of these lenses, I seek to produce content that is educational and entertaining, and I thank you sincerely for taking the time to read what I have to say. Please follow me on Twitter at @tonyspilotroBTC and feel free to drop me a line if you would like to work together.
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